Shadow Games
The hidden spectre of Russia and China in the West Asia conflict.
In war and conflict, there’s always a duality of space. A battlefield that is violently visible and one that is hidden in the shadows. Away from the fire and fury of missiles lies a field of strategy and deception. Less like a battlefield, more like a chessboard, pushing war in different directions. As the battlefield erupted across West Asia last month, moves were being made behind-the-scenes via Moscow and Beijing that were shaping the war. While both capitals continuously called for peace, from the shadows, they provided support and intelligence to help Iran.
Though this isn’t the first time extra-regional powers have been involved surreptitiously in a war. Conflicts are replete with big powers fulfilling ulterior motives via proxy campaigns. Amidst the Cold War, both the United States and the Soviet Union carried out proxy campaigns to counter each other without direct involvement. From Nicaragua to Congo to Angola, the two powers fought against each other via clandestine aid, military transfers, and logistical support for competing factions.
Akin to these battles, the current West Asia conflict imitates a similar pattern of extra-regional power involvement. Though the stakes for Beijing and Moscow in West Asia are significant. Iran is an essential partner to both countries, and their interests converged in preventing regime change. A Western-aligned Iran would not bode well for China’s long-term energy independence, given that China is estimated to purchase 90 per cent of Iran’s crude exports. The conflict also ties into interests closer to home for both Russia and China. A prolonged conflict in Iran could reduce America’s capacity to continue arming Ukraine and perhaps benefit Russia. While continued escalation by the United States in this conflict could also alter China's red lines in Taiwan.
Given this intricate set of dynamics and interests, both these powers worked amidst the shadows as temperatures soared in the Gulf.
Dual-Use Technologies
Since the outset of the war, China has publicly stated through its foreign minister and foreign ministry, the need for immediate cessation of hostilities and dialogue. Though from the background, it has moved pieces to help Tehran.
China’s relations with Iran aren’t symptomatic of the current conflict, they arc a long history of converging strategic interests. The 25 Year Strategic Cooperation Agreement signed between the two countries in 2021 forms the bedrock of current and future relations. Essentially, through the agreement, China gains energy security via discounted crude oil supplies at scale from Iran. While Iran gets indirect supplies of essential materials that fuel their drone and missile programs.
China, for years, has been supplying dual-use technologies to Iran that power both their commercial activities and military requirements. As a consequence, dual-use technologies like micro-electronics, sensors, batteries, semi-conductors, guidance components, chemicals, and precursors for rocket fuel have been supplied to Tehran via Beijing. These supplies have been adapted for military purposes by Iran and have been critical to the missile and drone inventory they have built up over the years. This inventory enabled them to both offset attacks and undertake counterstrikes in the current campaign.
Satellites of Precision
Beijing’s clandestine support for Iran goes beyond dual-use technologies. Since the outbreak of Operation Epic Fury, China has secretly enabled structures that have provided Tehran with critical satellite imagery and intelligence. This has helped them target American assets and bases across the Gulf.
Reports suggest that in 2024, China secretly sold a satellite to Iran, which significantly enhanced its surveillance and mapping abilities. The TEE-01B purchased by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, built by the Chinese company Earth Eye Co, were central to Iran’s precision strikes through West Asia during the war. The TEE-01B is a major upgrade on Iran’s Noor series satellites, being able to capture images up to 0.5 metres resolution, a near 10 times improvement from the Noor-3, which captures images up to 5 metres resolution.
Leaked logs accessed by the Financial Times, show that the TEE-01B satellite was used by Iran to capture images of Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 13, 14 and 15. The base was hit by Iranian missiles and drones around the same time, damaging five U.S. Air Force refuelers. Beyond Saudi Arabia, the satellite was used by Iran to conduct reconnaissance over Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, locations near the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s naval base in Bahrain, and the Erbil airport in Iraq. Industrial areas and ports across the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were also mapped by Iran using the TEE-01B satellite. Coincidentally, all these strategic locations and assets were mapped around the same time they were struck by Iranian missiles and drones.
Though it is logical to assess that Chinese operatives and entities would have assisted in the utilisation and operation of the TEE-01B satellite. Such high-level adaptation and technical usage by Iran is unlikely to have taken place without the consent of the forces that be in Beijing.
Beyond precision satellite mapping, open source intelligence suggests that China in the aftermath of the ceasefire was planning to supply Iran with FN-6 shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles or MANPADS. The FN-6 are third generation MANPADS powered by infrared seekers that can be used to take down helicopters, drones, and cruise missiles.
However, despite these manoeuvrings to support Iran’s campaign, China ensured that Iran agreed to talks in Pakistan in April, with Beijing's role being acknowledged by President Trump. Effectively, China walked a tightrope between protecting a partner and offsetting long-term economic devastation through a protracted conflict, whilst operating entirely in the shadows.
Return of the Drones
In an outward show of support, President Vladimir Putin hailed Iran’s courage during the current conflict when he met Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in St Petersburg last week of April. Though much like China, throughout the war, Moscow has maintained a steadfast call for peace and an end to hostilities.
While Russia’s relations with Iran go back decades, the conflict with Ukraine since 2022 provided a new military fillip to the dynamic. In the early days of the conflict, Russia relied heavily on Iran to supply cheap Shahed drones to counter Ukraine’s drone tactics. Over the four years of the conflict, Russia upgraded, adapted, and scaled production of the Shahed’s. In a reversal of roles, Russia was reportedly advising Iran on drone tactics, while also supplying them with upgraded versions of the Shahed and the Geran-2 attack drones as the West Asia crisis went into overdrive.
According to Western intelligence, Moscow also provided Tehran with intelligence on American troop movements, the location of strategic assets, including ships and aircraft, while also assisting with electronic warfare. Russia’s advanced network of satellites was critical to this intelligence-sharing with Iran.
Through the Shadows
As things stand, a fragile peace has currently been brokered. China and Russia will follow the pattern that has emerged, deny any direct role in the conflict, and advocate for sustained peace through dialogue.
But below the surface, both countries have displayed tremendous capacity to discreetly shape outcomes for a heavily sanctioned partner like Iran, despite facing system-controlling adversaries. Their ability to shape these outcomes will have structural consequences, offering an effective assessment of great-power competition vis-à-vis advanced military technology.
Within Beijing and Moscow, different moves and counter-moves will be gamed and strategised depending on how the battlefield evolves. As powers have done in the past, and even in the current conflict, moves will be made secretly. China and Russia will continue to operate through the shadows to shape the future course of the war.